Peterson said in an interview with CBS Sports that there are three guys right now who should be considered the best receiver in the NFL, and he called them “1A, 1B and 1C.” He wouldn’t put them in order, but that trio is Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown.
“Those guys are the game changers at any point in any game,” Peterson said. “Those guys just keep putting up the big numbers, and they are consistently doing it.”
He’s right. Moreover, that’s why Fantasy owners love them.
There’s a fun debate about who the best receiver is in the NFL. Moreover, it’s somewhat of a talking point for Fantasy owners as well, although Brown is universally thought of as the No. 1 option.
Jones and Beckham are right there with Brown, but there are five receivers Fantasy owners aim. We’re calling them the Elite Eight.
Michael Thomas is just outside of this group now that he’s the No. 1 receiver for the Saints with Brandin Cooks in New England, but Thomas is not part of the Elite Eight. Those people are, in order of my rankings, Brown, Jones, Beckham, A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, and T.Y. Hilton. All of them should be considered No. 1 Fantasy receivers. Moreover, all of them are difference makers heading into this year.
This offseason, I got the chance to ask several players and coaches about the top receiver in the NFL, and the majority chose Jones. Granted, he was just coming off a Super Bowl run for the Falcons, but there’s no denying he’s a beast.
“Julio is killing it right now,” Vikings All-Pro cornerback Xavier Rhodes said. “I don’t think anybody can disagree with that. He’s playing lights out.”
Beckham, like Peterson, said there’s a group of receivers that can be considered the “premier guys,” and he listed Bryant, Jones, Green, Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins in that group – without naming himself. Maybe he’s being humble, but obviously, he’s a premier receiver as well.
Moreover, it was fun to hear teammates and coaches of these receivers stand up for their person. At the Pro Bowl, I asked Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton who the No. 1 receiver in the NFL is, and obviously, he said, “I’m taking A.J.”
I also asked Steelers coach Mike Tomlin at the NFL annual meeting if he thought Brown was the best player at his position, and he said, rightfully so, “I wouldn’t trade him for anyone.”
Fantasy owners likely wouldn’t trade Brown for anyone either – at least not straight up in a receiver for receiver trade. In a Twitter poll of nearly 2,500 votes, Brown was considered the No. 1 Fantasy receiver ahead of Jones and Beckham. Brown had 63 percent of the vote, Jones was at 23 percent, and Beckham was at 8 percent.
The nice thing about Fantasy drafts is you can likely decide what receiver you want on your team. Moreover, here is a breakdown of the Elite Eight and what to expect from them this season.
As Peterson said, they should put up big numbers. That’s always going to make Fantasy owners happy.
1. Antonio Brown, Steelers
2016 STATS: 106 catches for 1,284 yards and 12 touchdowns on 155 targets (15 games)
STATS THAT GRAB YOU: He has more receptions in a four-year span than any other player in NFL history (481) from 2013-16, and he’s either been first or second in receptions in every year over that span, with more than 100 catches in each year. Over the past three seasons, Brown has scored double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league in 34 of 47 games. In his past three years at home (23 games), Brown has 192 catches for 2,540 and 24 touchdowns. He had 74 catches for 1,038 yards and eight touchdowns in eight home games in 2015.
THE BREAKDOWN: Brown might not finish as the No. 1 Fantasy receiver this season, but he’s been in the top three in each of the past three years. He’s averaging 124 catches for 1,605 yards and 12 touchdowns on 177 targets over that span, and we don’t see him slowing down after he got a contract extension this offseason for four years and $68 million that will start in 2018. One concern could be Ben Roethlisberger’s health since he’s missed five games over the past two years, and we’ll see if the return of Martavis Bryant (suspension) hurts Brown at all. However, these are minor issues for an exceptional player. Brown should be the No. 1 receiver drafted in all leagues, and he should come off the board no later than No. 4 overall in any format.
2. Julio Jones, Falcons
2016 STATS: 83 catches for 1,409 yards and six touchdowns on 129 targets (14 games)
STATS THAT GRAB YOU: Jones has averaged 100 yards a game for four years in a row. He’s the only player in NFL history to do that four times, and he has 26 games with at least 100 yards in his past 50 outings . . . In 2016, Jones became the sixth player in NFL history with 300 receiving yards in a game when he had 12 catches for 300 yards and a touchdown in Week 4 against Carolina. Jones also had 11 catches for 259 yards and a touchdown at Green Bay in Week 14 of the 2014 season . . . Jones is No. 1 in NFL history with an average of 96.3 yards per game. Odell Beckham is second (95.9) and Calvin Johnson (86.1) is third. By comparison, Jerry Rice is No. 11 at 75.6, and Brown is No. 5 at 82.9.
THE BREAKDOWN: There are two things that keep Jones from being the No. 1 Fantasy receiver, which are a lack of touchdowns and his nagging foot issues. Jones has one season in his career with double digits in touchdowns, which was 2012 when he scored 10. Otherwise, he’s averaging just seven touchdowns a year for the past three seasons. Moreover, he had another minor foot procedure in March, although he’s expected to be fi ne for training camp. Despite the lack of touchdowns, his receptions (108 on average over the past three years) and his yardage have clearly been exceptional, and he should continue to dominate this year, even with a new offensive coordinator in Steve Sarkisian, who is replacing the departed Kyle Shanahan. Jones will be drafted no later than No. 6 overall in all leagues.
3. Odell Beckham, Giants
2016 STATS: 101 catches for 1,367 yards and 10 touchdowns on 169 targets
STATS THAT GRAB YOU: Beckham and Jarvis Landry are tied for the most receptions for a player in the first three years of their career with 288. The four year record is 342 from Anquan Boldin . . . Beckham is the only player in NFL history with three-consecutive seasons of 70-plus catches, 1,000-plus receiving yards and 10-plus touchdowns to begin his career. Moreover, he’s the fastest player in NFL history to catch 250 passes (38 games) and gain 3,500 receiving yards (35 games). He’s played 26 games in November, December, and January in the regular season in his career, and he has double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league in 21 of those outings. He’s averaging 16.4 Fantasy points in a standard league over that span.
THE BREAKDOWN: Beckham is going to share the field with the most accomplished teammate at receiver he’s ever had in Brandon Marshall, which could hurt his production, especially if second-year receiver Sterling Shepard continues to play at a high level. However, Beckham is clearly the go-to weapon in this offense, and Eli Manning is not going to shy away from him. Beckham has averaged 153 targets a year for his career, and his production speaks for itself. Marshall’s presence keeps Beckham firmly in the No. 3 overall spot at receiver, but he could easily be the No. 1 Fantasy receiver this year. He will be drafted by at least No. 6 overall in the majority of leagues.
4. A.J. Green, Bengals
2016 STATS: 66 catches for 964 yards and four touchdowns on 100 targets (10 games)
STATS THAT GRAB YOU: Last year, because of a season-ending hamstring injury suffered in Week 11 against Buffalo, Green fell 36 yards shy of joining Randy Moss as the only receivers in NFL history with 1,000 receiving yards in each of their first six seasons. … If you project Green’s stats over his first nine games before getting hurt, he would have finished last season with 117 catches for 1,714 yards and seven touchdowns. The catches and yards would have easily led the NFL. … He also was on pace for 176 targets last year, and there have been two times in his career when he had at least 160 targets, which was 2012 (164) and 2013 (180). In those two seasons, Green was at least the No. 4 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues.
THE BREAKDOWN: There are Fantasy owners who are going to shy away from Green this season because of his injury last year, and that’s a mistake. He was the No. 7 Fantasy receiver in 2015, which should be considered his floor when healthy, and you see the pace he was on had he not hurt his hamstring in the first quarter of Week 11 against the Bills. The Bengals and Dalton need Green even if Tyler Eifert (back) is healthy and even after the addition of rookie John Ross. Green should be drafted as high as the No. 4 receiver off the board should but he’s a slam-dunk as a first-round pick in all leagues.
5. Mike Evans, Buccaneers
2016 STATS: 96 catches for 1,321 yards and 12 touchdowns on 175 targets
STATS THAT GRAB YOU: Evans finished No. 2 in Fantasy points in a standard league at receiver behind Nelson, but he led the NFL in targets. This is now three years in a row where the leader in targets (Jones in 2015 and Demaryius Thomas in 2014) has finished second in Fantasy points at receiver . . . In two years with quarterback Jameis Winston, Evans is averaging 85 catches for 1,264 yards and eight touchdowns on 161 targets. If he put up those stats alone in 2016 he would have been third in targets, No. 14 in receptions, No. 6 in yards and No. 9 in touchdowns . . . Evans owns the Tampa Bay record for most touchdowns in a season with 12, which he’s done twice in 2014 and 2016.
THE BREAKDOWN: There is a slight fear that Evans’ production will decline this year with the addition of DeSean Jackson and rookie tight end O.J. Howard, which is a valid concern, and Jackson is the best teammate that Evans has ever had at receiver. However, we doubt Winston will shy away from Evans after he’s relied on him so much over the past two years. Moreover, he’s an elite talent, and he’s already finished as a top-12 Fantasy receiver twice in his career in 2014 and 2016. Evans can be considered as high as the No. 4 receiver ahead of Green can, but he could also fall behind Nelson or Bryant. It might come down to personal choice. However, Evans has established himself as a Fantasy star, and he’s worth drafting in the first 10 overall picks in the majority of leagues.
6. Jordy Nelson, Packers
2016 STATS: 97 catches for 1,257 yards and 14 touchdowns on 152 targets
STATS THAT GRAB YOU: Nelson has been the No. 1 Fantasy receiver twice (2016 and 2011) and the No. 3 receiver another time (2014) during the past six seasons when he and quarterback Aaron Rodgers have been healthy for 16 games. Nelson missed 2015 with a torn ACL and only played 12 games in 2012, and Rodgers was limited to nine games in 2013 . . . In his past 16 home games going back to 2014, Nelson has 86 catches for 1,524 yards and 18 touchdowns. That’s many Lambeau Leaps . . . Rodgers and Nelson are the most prolific quarterback-receiver combination in Packers history with 59 touchdowns between the two of them. The previous record holders were Brett Favre and Antonio Freeman.
THE BREAKDOWN: Nelson turned 32 in May, and he’s the oldest player of this group, which is why he’s ranked so low given his production when he and Rodgers are healthy. However, it’s hard to ignore how good he’s been over the past six years, and he deserved the Comeback Player of the Year award in 2016 after he dominated following the ACL injury in 2015. Nelson had only five games without a touchdown last year, and he scored double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league in nine games, including two with at least 22 points. Nelson is worth drafting toward the end of Round 1 or beginning of Round 2, and you should expect plenty of fi reworks if he and Rodgers are healthy all year.
7. Dez Bryant, Cowboys
2016 STATS: 50 catches for 796 yards and eight touchdowns on 97 targets (13 games)
STATS THAT GRAB YOU: Bryant has been limited to 22 games over the past two seasons because of foot and knee injuries. However, the last three years that he played 16 games from 2012-14, he finished as at least the No. 5 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues. During those three seasons, Bryant averaged 91 catches for 1,312 yards and 14 touchdowns. Bryant said he played at that level again in the Divisional Round of the playoffs against the Packers when he had nine catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns . . . After missing three games with a knee injury last year, Bryant had 39 catches for 646 yards and seven touchdowns over his next nine outings when he was healthy. If you project those stats over 16 games, Bryant would have finished 2016 with 69 catches for 1,148 yards and 12 touchdowns.
THE BREAKDOWN: Bryant is easily the receiver that makes Fantasy owners the most nervous with an early-round pick because of his injury history, which is understandable. However, it’s also a mistake. Bryant looked amazing in the playoff game against the Packers, which followed a strong close to the regular season in 2016. He pronounced himself back at 100 percent at this year’s Pro Bowl, and he’s capable of 90 catches, 1,300 yards, and 14 touchdowns when healthy. He also appears to be locked in with new quarterback Dak Prescott, and Bryant is worth drafting toward the end of Round 1 or beginning of Round 2 in all leagues.
8. T.Y. Hilton, Colts
2016 STATS: 91 catches for 1,448 yards and six touchdowns on 156 targets
STATS THAT GRAB YOU: Hilton was the No. 10 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues in 2014 and No. 5 last year, and Colts quarterback Andrew Luck played at least 15 games in both of those seasons. Luck was limited to seven games in 2015 because of kidney and shoulder injuries, and Hilton finished as the No. 20 Fantasy receiver that season . . . Hilton has been consistent over the past four seasons with an average of 81 catches, 1,250 yards and six touchdowns over that span . . . Hilton led the NFL in receiving yards in 2016. While he only had six games with more than 100 receiving yards, he had two outings with at least 170 yards (Week 3 against San Diego with eight catches for 174 yards and a touchdown, and Week 5 against Chicago with 10 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown), which shows his big-play ability.
THE BREAKDOWN: Hilton is worth drafting in the first two rounds of any Fantasy draft, but he’s the eighth member of this group for a reason. You know who he is after the past four seasons of his production, and he’s never scored more than seven touchdowns in any year. The only receiver comparable to him is Jones because of his lack of touchdowns, and we know Jones is a better receiver. However, Hilton is still the No. 1 receiver in an explosive offense with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Luck. He’s a good No. 1 Fantasy receiver if you pass on the position in the first round, but Hilton should be drafted in Round 2 in the majority of leagues.
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